China: A Middle Class? I don't think so.

Much is written about China’s “emerging ‘Middle Class’ or ‘middle stratum’ as China likes to call it. How big is it? How big will it be? It’s spending habits. It’s likely effects on politics and democracy.


In the early 1990's when Deng Xiaoping had his ‘Wall Street’ moment announcing "to get rich is glorious" there did not exist in China a 'Middle Class' or anything vaguely similar.


However, by the late 1990‘s, as China’s economic rocket took off a 'Middle Class' was said by analysts and commentators to be 'emerging'. The west got very excited about it. They seemed to assume that this emergent, if in fact it existed, would change the very fabric and direction of China. Democracy would naturally descend upon China and the world would rest easy as the last great communist regime dissolved.


But what is a 'Middle Class' that is capable of wringing these profound changes, and, does there exist a true 'Middle Class' in China?


Definitions are endless. Economists, analysts and commentators say it can be assessed on myriad of criterion: income, assets, lifestyle, education and employment categories, or, a combination of some or all of the foregoing


All these experts seem to agree, despite their disparate methods, that there exists now in China a 'Middle Class'


Having arrived at that conclusion they each expound on how this 'Middle Class' will effect China  be it economically, politically, culturally, drawing, of course, on Western experience of the dynamics of a 'Middle Class'


But is their conclusion that there exists a 'Middle Class',with all it’s attendant connotations, and, ergo, their predictions for China, premised on that conclusion, correct?


I would argue not.


The pundits have defined ‘Middle Class’ based totally on numeration and materialism; money or things obtained through having the means for discretionary spending. In other words they believe nothing exists but matter and spiritual issues play no part in their definitions


I will look at ‘Middle Class’ not defined by money or what money buys but the mindset that comes from  feeling 'Middle Class' and the way a mature 'Middle Class' interacts with society as a whole.




Middle Class in the Western World


The existence of a 'Middle Class' in the western and developed world is a fairly recent phenomenon having it’s genesis with the First World War almost 100 years ago. It was not until after the Second World War, particularly in the late fifties and sixties, that a middle class truly emerged as a very distinct entity which  started to effect society as a whole, economically, politically and culturally.

We, in the developed west, now have a 'Middle Class' fully evolved culturally and politically. I use the world evolved because that is what it has done, over time, to become what it is, what it represents and what it’s power and importance is today. 

The 'Middle Class' we see today, its norms, it’s values, it’s importance in all aspects of society evolved learning about itself as it grew, altering, changing and metamorphosing itself into what it now is.

Today, in the West, it is the backbone of economy and society. The ballast that keeps the ship trim, if you will, a living breathing checks and balance. It’s importance is such in the West that if the middle class gets a sniffle the western world will get an almighty cold.

The West’s ‘Middle Class’ has earned the right to now be defined simply in monetary terms of income or assets, of lifestyle, because a system of being 'Middle Class' and a full understanding of what a 'Middle Class' is and represents  has fully evolved. Therefore if you have A you are therefore B and you act C. And everyone who is not 'Middle Class' knows what to expect from you and how to interact with you.

Now this is not the case in China. Yes, in monetary terms and lifestyle terms, a thing resembling a 'Middle Class' can be observed. It meets the income, assets, lifestyle criteria of being 'Middle Class' in a materialistic way. But with China it is not a case of “if it looks like it is, if it smells like it is, if it taste like it is it must be..”

Every social system existing in  humanity has required an in situ evolution. A social system can not be learned from a book. It can not be imposed, bought or wished for, it must be  learnt and earned over a considerable period of time. 

One generation will start the ball rolling, it will stumble fall and get up. It will slowly over time learn from it’s mistakes. The next will have learned from history, make their own changes over which they too will stumble, fall and get up  and they will learn. And so the process continues.

China’s so called 'Middle Class' does not exist because, whilst a certain sector of Chinese society has money, it does not have the life skills, experience or an evolved system to function as a true “middle class” as we in the west know it and with all the good things that 'Middle Classes' bring to society as a whole.

Lets explore this quickly. 

China’s so called 'Middle Class' far from being the backbone of Chinese society, as in the West, is wracked with anxiety, insecurity  and a degree of fear. It is aimless, searching, wandering.

The commentators expect of them to have learned in the course of a decade what the West’s 'Middle Class' took a century to learn and do so in a completely different and far more adversarial environment, culturally and politically.

They have not come to a realisation as to where they slot in between the old culture and some nebulous new culture seemingly on offer. Nor have the 'higher ups' or working class worked out their relationships to it..

Their position vis a vis the next class up and the class below has not been settled to any ones satisfaction unlike in the west. They are not in a 'comfort zone'.

In the west the ‘Middle Class’ is all powerful and respected by all other classes. It controls the bulk of the money and therefore it’s effect on the economies of the world is great, it’s political clout is immense. In China these Noveau Riche  are virtually powerless in relation to the ruling class and generally through their ostentatious lifestyle, the kid in the lolly shop, not particularly admired by the working class.

In the west a thriving positive ‘Middle Class'  functions effectively because there is no ceiling. Bubbles that wish to can reach the very top, bubbles that wish to just float can and others can sink, not so in China.There is a 'glass ceiling' and that is the CCP. Chinese culture requires you be seen to keep 'rising' but there is nowhere to rise to. You can put all your hopes and aspirations on your children but they too will feel the same constraints. The only alternative will be to go abroad.

In China the Nouveau Riche  lack maturity because not only are they on the first rung on the evolutionary ladder as a social and political entity  but also, because of China’s incredible economic growth and their rapid promotion, these people are biologically  younger in years than their western counterparts.

No this group of people do not constitute a ‘Middle Class’ in the Western sense. They show some of the attributes but, at the moment, and for a long time to come, they are just a group of people that earn more money than the group of people below them.

Wu calls for boosting Xinjiang's development

BEIJING - China's top legislator Wu Bangguo has called for promoting "leapfrog development" and "lasting stability" of northwest Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region during his four-day visit of the far western area.

From Thursday to Sunday, Wu toured enterprises, farmland, communities, and met local families in the cities of Hotan, Kashgar, Changji, Shihezi and the regional capital Urumqi.

Efforts should be made to "learn the significance of the progress in Xinjiang" from a "strategic and overall view," said Wu, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the country's top legislative body.

"By utilizing nationwide support, Xinjiang's self-development ability should be strengthened and its resource advantages should be transferred into economic strength," said Wu, also a Standing Committee member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee.

Wu calls for boosting Xinjiang's development

China: Does inflation equal turmoil?

With the May inflation rate of 5.5% being recently posted everyone is aware that China’s inflation rate is running high.

This figure is up from an average inflation rate of 4.25% experienced for the period 1994-2010. It’s causes are not really of concern here nor what China’s is attempting to do to reign it in. The question is what effect will high inflation have on the vitally important Chinese Communist Party objective of  maintaining “Social Harmony”

There are very many issues effecting “Social Harmony" in China today, the list is almost endless. There is nothing in China that does not upset or affect someone or some group of citizens.

Each, on it’s own, can be dealt with by the government. Small isolated and localised grievances, for whatever reasons they exist, can easily be quelled and silenced, if necessary, by sending in China’s ubiquitous Riot Police who seem for ever poised to quickly respond, anywhere, anytime.

And we do see it all the time. The recent riot in Guangzhou involving migrant workers was quickly quashed and plausible reasons for it’s occurrence trotted out just as quickly. Local rumour mongers were to blame not the heavy handedness of the Local security, nor the rapidly growing disenchantment of migrant workers everywhere caused by a multiplicity of grievances. An incident like this is reported on, in this case internationally, but soon forgotten. One small and localised group is affected, so what, life goes on.

But when an issue arises that affects more than one group then a whole new scenario arises. We have the potential for a domino effect. If riot police are used to break up a protest or a riot among a group more nationally representative then the whole dynamics change. If there is a crackdown in Shantou of “ordinary" citizens then a group in Lanzho might say  "Hey that is us! We have that grievance as well, we should do something about it too." And so it starts, dominoes falling across the nation, slowly at first but quickly picking up tempo. Riot police are not going to as easily stem that tide.

Inflation is just that type of cause. It affects everyone. The poor feel it in their stomachs, the middle class feel it in their wallets and even the “Higher Ups” feel it, the uncertainty, who’s head is going to be on the chopping block if something goes wrong?.

It magnifies differences between individuals and between groups, belting up the amplitude of dissatisfaction. Everyone starts reassessing their personal and family situations against the “haves” (or “more haves") and the “higher ups”. When everything is going along well things are less noticeable or, if they are noticeable, they are more easily acceptable. But when things are not going along so well then the small mites in eyes become rather large and very painful planks that need to be removed.

A 5.5% inflation rate is not something that seems scarily high but when the food inflation rate embodied in that figure is 11.7% and the cost of housing, particularly rent for low income families, is skyrocketing, consequent with housing stock shortages, alarm bells should and, I would say, are ringing very loudly in the Politburo.They will recall that rampant inflation was one factor in them getting into power originally.

There is a trigger that is waiting to be pulled in China if the government is not careful. It may be inflation, it may be housing issues, it may be migrant workers or ethnic minorities. Once that trigger is pulled the pent up rage festering just below the surface in China will embroil all the disparate grievances and coalesce them into one almighty snowball.

China Coal Mining: Six dead in Inner Mongolia

CNTV reports that 6 miners died in a mine accident today in China's north west Inner Mongolia.

Once again it shows just how dangerous being a coal miner in China is.

Each year thousands die in search of coal to fuel China's ever growing economy.

But I have just tweeted this story and commented that whilst it is always bad news to hear of deaths it has been a while since the last reports of fatalities and, whilst I did not say it as it would sound rather cold, that is a good thing.

When I started blogging China in the early 2000's every morning you awoke to news of  more deaths in Chinese coal mines. Reports back in say 2004 put estimated Chinese coal mining deaths at 20,000 per year not to mention the many thousands that were injured. It was soul destroying. I used to ask myself, in my naivety, how can the Chinese government let this happen?

A lot of international public scrutiny was brought to bear on the Chinese government through that decade and to their credit they have significantly changed the situation. In 2010 Mining deaths were reported at 2,433  (1) and year to date March figure saw a decrease of 39% on corresponding period 2010. A significant achievement in any ones books.

They have done this by closing down illegal backyard sized mines and mines that could not satisfy safety standards, made coal mine owners responsible legally for deaths in their operations and punished local officials who either were too lazy, or more likely, too corrupt to enforce safety regulations.

The Chinese government has done well and is continuing to bring the death toll down. There will always be deaths in coal mining, no coal mining country is exempt from that but they can be considerably lessened.

But, beyond all this, what I am as equally happy with is that now the Government does not hide deaths in mining. Within 10 odd hours of this accident occurring Chinese English news media were running the story.

Some cynics may say that the accident occurred in Inner Mongolia and the Chinese Government was getting in quick given the recent unrest in that region but I don't think so. This "openness" has been apparent to me for some time now.

Note (1) These are official figures. Actual deaths will be higher due to non reporting and illegal mine operations

Further Reading from me on Coal Miners Rights

6 killed in coal mine accident in N China CCTV News - CNTV English

China: Women and Children's Rights

The Chinese Communist Party has released a Ten Year Plan with a view to increasing equality of woman in China in all areas of Chinese life and also to focus on the the physical and mental well being of children particularly those from rural areas. A copy of the press release follows.

Two guidelines concerning women and children's affairs over the next 10 years were approved Wednesday at an executive meeting of the State Council, or the Cabinet, stressing gender equality.The Program for the Development of Chinese Women (2011-2020) covers main goals, policies and measures to ensure women's legitimate rights and interests,and promote their social status, according to a statement released Wednesday after the meeting.

The program also aims to ensure that women equally exercise their democratic rights in accordance with the law, equally participate in economic and social development and equally enjoy the achievements of reform and development.

The Program for the Development of Chinese Children (2011-2020) sets goals in the areas of health, education, welfare, social environment and legal protection. Relevant policies are also made to guarantee childrens' right to subsistence, development, being protected and participation.

The program also aims at boosting children's physical and mental health and their overall qualities as well as narrowing the development gap between children in urban and rural area The statement didn't reveal details about the two programs.

"We must clearly realize that, under the influence of various economic, social and cultural factors, the development of women and children in China and the protection of their rights still face many problems and challenges," said the state

Women's average life span in China rose to 75.25 years last year from 73.3 in 2000, and the number of employed women and their influence in decision-making and management both increased "steadily," said the statement

Premier Wen Jiabao, urged local government departments to map out their own development programs for women and children and set up tight-knit working mechanisms to ensure the implementation of the programs. 

China sets down 10-year development blueprints for women, children - CPC News

China’s Changing of The Guard

Ramifications for "Social Harmony"

Mao and the next generation

The linked article speaks to China standing at the crossroads as it moves forward to late 2012 when the fifth generation of Chinese leadership will take their seats at the helm of the fastest growing and, potentially, the most volatile country in the world.

Thirty two years ago then China's Paramount Leader Deng Xiaoping  implemented far reaching reform and opening up policies. Policies that would see drastic changes to the very fabric of China’s society, culture and economy. 

These policies see a vastly different China today then the one that existed then. A China that has experienced the most astonishing economic growth in history, to a point now, where it stands as the second biggest economy in the world and poised to overtake the United States in the not too distant future.

But this economic miracle has not been without it’s costs particularly concerning China’s social stability, or “Social Harmony” as it is generally referred as.

Rapid growth has seen many changes in China’s society and culture. The move to a “market economy” on the principle, pretty much, of “laissez fare” has seen seismic shifts in wealth distribution in China, not only as between rural and urban dwellers, but also within urban areas between the emergent “middle class” and the others.

As well there has been drastic changes between regions within China with the coastal regions growing exponentially and the central and western regions lagging considerably behind.

The “market economy” policy allows money to flow to those regions and industries that have “competitive advantage”, in the case of China, this means the coastal areas, areas that have ready access to export facilities, relationships with foreigners and transport infrastructure.

Prior to the “opening up” internal investment was centrally controlled. Money was divided up reasonably equitably between regions and provinces. Post “opening up” this has changed with Government money following private money. As the coastal  regions grew so did government investment in those areas to support the private sector’s growth. This investment was diverted to a degree from other areas. Thus, the likes of Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and many central provinces such as Qinghai' went backwards in their share of the national pie, becoming relatively poorer.

Rural industries likewise suffered vis a vis manufacturing and exporting industries causing a rural/urban-industrial income divide, exacerbated by the drain of rural workers to the factories and construction sites of the coast. 

On an individuals level inequities have became apparent and continue to grow. With wealth pouring into China a new “Middle Class” emerged and continues to expand. Educated, urban, worldly, technologically savvy and growing considerably more affluent, they wield not inconsiderable power economically and politically.Thus a “middle income trap” came into play where the government pandered to the wealthy to the neglect of the others.

On top of these "food in the mouth" issues there are others eating away at China’s “Harmony”. 

Rampant corruption consumes the nation. This is not a new phenomenon, it has been a way of life in China for millennia. What has changed is that with new avenues of communication, a rise in general education standards, the growing disparity between the haves and the have nots the latter are asking “What about me?”

Rapid industrialisation also has seen the need for land to build factories and infrastructure and many times this has been acquired without due concern for the original occupiers. Repossessions, forced evictions and the like have seriously affected millions. The Three Gorges Dam project saw the relocation of some 1.24 million people, the Beijing Olympics saw an estimated 1.5 million relocated,  forcibly, in a lot of cases.

These examples are only the tip of the iceberg. Such land grabbing has brought immense pressure on the available supply of housing stock, particularly for low income earners, with the resultant increase in rent and decrease in the quality of accommodation not to mention the dignity of those affected.

Another issue is the phenomenon of China’s “Migrant workers” or Mingong. As the term implies they are a 225 million strong floating and marginalised group wanted by no-one but the businesses they slave for.

Hailing from rural areas they work for little money, in the worst conditions, living in substandard accommodations and without the protections and welfare support of China’s Hukou Registration system or Organised Labour. The potential for social disharmony issuing from this class of citizen is incalculable. A recent riot in Chazou in Guandong province proves that the potential for discord is bubbling just below the surface.

And finally not to mention the perennial problems and potentiality for disturbance in Xinjiang, Tibet and, now, rumblings in the normally quiet Inner Mongolia. Not only are there ethnic/cultural differences at play but these inherent problems have been further exacerbated by all of the foregoing.

Maintenance of "Social Harmony" a Must

The maintenance of Social Harmony has to be of paramount importance in China, a country of 1.3 billion, and there is disquiet within the Chinese Communist Party that the government has allowed “liberalisation” “opening up” “market economy” and “peaceful rising” policies to have gone too far. That in fact the policies are impacting very negatively on “Social Harmony”.

Just recently the State owned press organ People’s Daily has had several editorials and op-eds on issues relating to “Social Harmony” such as CCP discipline, Co-Operation, Religious Freedom and pace and style of democratic reform  One editorial piece Bring social cohesion into full play sums it all up.

This all goes towards proof that with the “Riot Season” upon them the Chinese government is very concerned at the moment.

Thus, China is at a  very important crossroads and all bets seem to be that, with the new generation, there will be a stepping back. A change not particularly to a Mao type era but certainly back to a more Marxist Socialist ideology that has been departed from over the last 30 odd years.

China has enormous issues to contend with and there are many, many more then have been touched on here, none the least being energy, pollution and food. The list is seemingly endless. 

The CPC knows that it has to get the balance right for it is to survive well into the future and priority above all priorities in China is the survival of the Chinese Communist Party.

How this will be achieved and how it will pan out in terms of “Social Harmony” is really anybodies guess. As they say it is hard to stop a horse once it has bolted and there is a hell of a lot of “Social Harmonising” to be done.

And the world should wait with bated breath.

China preparing Tibet as future war zone?

Rapid Infrastructure Investment Not What it Is Cracked Up to Be?

China is always putting out what can only be classified as propaganda concerning all it is doing for the Tibetan people.

New roads, train lines, airfields all are said to be done to enhance the life of the Tibetan people.

 To raise them out of lives of virtual serfdom that supposedly existed pre 1951 under the Lama theocracy.

 And sure, China's investment in infrastructure has brought great change to the Tibetan people not all bad as some would have it. All measurable standards of living conditions have irrefutably improved under Communism.

The linked to article from the Indian Deecan Herald looks at these infrastructure changes in light of their worth from a  military and internal security viewpoint.

Particularly it looks at the ramifications for India's security of this considerable increase in China's logistical capability.

It goes without saying that Tibet sitting atop the the Sino-Indian border (So close that the existing Dalai Lama walked to India during his escape) is of immense importance to China from a strategic point of view.

Their desire to bolster their military capabilities and responsiveness anywhere in China  is totally understandable. That is their sovereign right and, may I say, duty to do so. This is more so in Tibet where there has existed smouldering animosity between India and China for decades punctuated with several border skirmishes.

The problem I have with all this is twofold

1. That the ability to respond with considerable force is not only outward looking but could quite easily be turned inward, that is, internal security against "Separatists" and "Splitists" to wit: the Tibetan people.
2. That China with it's propaganda about the good it is doing for the Tibetans does so in such a condescending way looking so to make her appear so very altruistic in the eyes of the world.

What can be done? Nothing China is doing nothing particularly wrong here other then to dabble in some pretty transparent self marketing.

Whether India has anything to worry about I would say yes. Not because I believe China has any expansionist ambitions in this area, or any area for that matter, but because they COULD and that is something to worry about. 

The problem for all is that " worry" is what causes border incidents and border incidents cause war.

The problems for the Tibetans and the Tibetan Government and Emigre groups in exile is that their battle was  lost a long time ago

China preparing Tibet as future war zone

China Cracks Down On Causes Of Unrest In Inner Mongolia

China Cracks Down On Causes Of Unrest In Inner Mongolia

After a week of protests by the normally quiet Mongolian people of China’s Inner Mongolia Region, the Chinese Government has announced a crackdown on the lucrative coal mining industry.

Like the Tibetans and the Uyghur people of Xinjiang the Mongolians are an ethnic minority group in China but unlike the former they have been very compliant to date with the policies of the central government.

However it is obvious a cup can only hold so much water.

The Tibetans, the Uyghurs and the Mongolians have seen, since the Communist Party took power, a complete change in their lifestyles, their freedoms and their natural environment.

Given their geographical position on China’s borders these regions are of immense strategic importance. As well, they are very rich in natural resources particularly energy that China is desperate for.

This has resulted in a virtual flood of Han Chinese into the areas weakening the respective cultures considerably and ravishing the land that they regard as being their ancestral home.

In the case of the Mongolians they have seen the lucrative mining industry rip out the wealth of their homeland with little commensurate compensation. They have witnessed the destruction of their vast grazing lands. They have, like the Tibetans and the Uyghurs, become strangers in their own land.

The death of the herdsman that started the Mongolian’s protests was just the straw that broke the camel’s back.

The problems run far deeper and the Chinese Government, with the announcement of this crackdown, realise that.

If this “Crackdown” will appease the Mongolians, other than in the short term, I fear not.

The "Uygur Question" : A proposed model for resolution



                                                                                       

The "Uygur Question" needs resolution. It needs resolution for a variety of reasons.

It is undoubted, despite PRC protestations to the contrary, that the human rights of the Uygur people of Xinjiang are being violated.

There are unlawful detentions, there are sham trials and there are even executions. Religious freedom, whilst far from being trampled, is compromised. Freedom of speech is non existent, fear is pervasive.

The Uygur's unique culture is being eroded at a rapid rate whether as intentional consequence of PRC policy or not.

The "Uygur Question" needs resolution from the Han Chinese perspective too.

The "Uygur Question" is a constant thorn in it's side domestically and internationally. It drains resources and manpower. It invokes fear, real or otherwise, in it's citizenry as well as within the organs of power. It presents a strategic problem that the Han can do without.

The loss of the Uygur culture will be a loss to the world as well. It will be of no less importance than then the disappearing Amazon rainforests, or Panda habitats or tiger populations, or the many other issues that takes the world's attentions.

Not reaching a solution will see the total destruction of a unique culture that goes back some 2,000 years, the culture of the roots of a tree that has spread it's branches throughout the world and impacted upon it so greatly.

These are a people that once ruled a great and mighty empire at the crossroads of great civilisations. The mighty Mongol Khans held them in great esteem and adopted many of their cultural elements, which they then took with them throughout the known world. The Uygur culture is a time capsule.

A solution can be found.

The solution, I believe, can be found in the acronym LACIM.

Leadership

The Uygur must raise from it's ranks a leadership group that can crystallise realistic objectives, unify the Uygur people in the attainment of same and be able to negotiate and facilitate change at the highest of levels.

This leadership group and the process of identification and funding must be supported and facilitated by the People's Republic and the international community. Without freedom and support it is unlikely that people of the right calibre will step forward given the PRC's history on dissent and dissidents.

The criteria for membership of this group is that they must be

- young

- intelligent and educated

- worldly and modern

- understanding of the needs of the Uygur peoples and other cultures in Xinjiang

- cognisant of the culture and psychology of the Han

- acceptable by higher Han society and government

- acceptable by the greater world

Paradoxically that class of Uygur that is often derided by their fellows, the Han educated, so called "Sinofied Uygurs", provide the best criteria fit.

Many Uygur children are selected by the PRC for special education within the mainstream Han education system. Many are taken to school in Beijing and educated through to university standard, many go on to post graduate study. They are young, well educated, more in touch with the modern world obviously fluent in Chinese and generally in English. They have lived the Han culture and value system and as such they are not only able to successfully negotiate with the Han but will have very real credibility with the greater world generally.

There are also academics, artists, etc away from China who have world experience without any political allegiances that also will fit the criteria.

The Uygur in diaspora who run "Uygur Organisations" from the comfort of Europe or the United States have no role to play in this leadership group. Like the post Tzarist Russian emigre class they can offer little and in fact will be a major hindrance to the process if they continue with what the PRC see as "China Bashing".

Quite frankly such organisations have done little to further the Uygur cause and with each successive day away from Xinjiang the increasingly less relevant they become. They do not, however, have to be totally cut out of the equation and can, through their myriad of international contacts, provide support and encouragement to this new group and the process they must undertake, however, this will require quite a considerable "sea change" in their posture.

Nor either can the supporters of Pan Turkic or Pan Islamic ideologies play any role. Their ideologies are completely the antithesis to the process that needs to be undertaken. It goes without saying that militant elements of any persuasion need not apply.

Acceptance: Uygur

The new Uygur leadership must sell "acceptance" to the reality that there will be no "Free Eastern Turkestan" or that Xinjiang will become a part of a Pan Turkic or Islamic state or confederation. Not only must the Uygur people "accept" but they must also be seen to "accept" and support the dropping of any claims to independence. This is of vital importance to the process.

They also must accept the fact of the current demographic situation and that this can not be undone.

People's Republic

The PRC must accept the Uygur as an ethnically and cultural diverse peoples and different to the Han Chinese. That, attempts at forced "Sinofication" or cultural assimilation will not only fail and possibly result in bloodshed and that it is not the result that, in the longer term, will be in the best national interests of the PRC.

Further, they must accept that in the long term, if a non peaceful resolution of the "Uygur Question" can not be found, then that will adversely effect China's standing in the eyes of the world and impact negatively on all of it's international relations.

The "War on Terror" has provided a temporary mask for the "Uygur Question" but this will not always be so.

The PRC given it's "New China" policy can actually gain international kudos by it's mature handling of the "Uygur Question" and preserve for future generations a culture that has been so historically important to the Chinese Nation.

Concessions

For the process to commence, let alone succeed, there must be a demonstrative willingness and desire by both parties, Uygur and Chinese, for it's success. This will require both parties providing "concessions" to prove the bona fide’s of their intentions. Mandatory concessions would have to include

Uygur Concessions

- An international demonstration by the Uygur that they formally, renounce any claims of Uygur or Islamic sovereignty over Xinjiang. Examples could be by way of Plebiscite or referenda.

- Similar demonstrations that they renounce all Pan Turkic and/or Pan Islamic ambitions for themselves and the region.

- Publicly disassociate themselves from any organisation that promotes such ideologies

- Demonstrate that they are willing to accept the current demographic make up of Xinjiang and they will not request redress. Further that they will work within it for the good of all Xinjiang's people and China generally.

- Demonstrate that they accept that the Chinese language is the main language of Xinjiang in terms at least of higher education, trade, government and employment.

- Acceptance of PRC population policies and acknowledge that despite whatever policies and programmes are put in place that the Han will eventually become by far the dominant ethnic group in Xinjiang.

- Renounce all claims as to financial or material redress, a la the Inuit and the Australian aboriginal scenarios, other than as set out below. That is no land rights claims or claims for compensation.

- All Uygur diaspora organisations to review their agendas in support of the process or else publicly be disassociated by the Uygur of Xinjiang.

- Concede that Uygurs who have committed criminal or terrorists acts must be made available for judgment by duly constituted courts within the state framework.

- That the Uygur, as part of their willingness to recognise the realities of the current and future demographic situation, offer that the word "Uygur" be omitted from the title of the region

PRC Concessions

- An international demonstration that it accepts the concept of multi culturalism within the Chinese state and particularly as it concerns the Turkic people of Xinjiang. This could be by way of official government statement.

- Announce that all policies and legislation currently implemented in Xinjiang will be reviewed by an independent body for purposes of determining the "Sinofication" effect inherent in them and, for them to be amended accordingly.

- Announce a moratorium, for a period to be negotiated, on Han migration to Xinjiang. This moratorium is to remain in effect until other elements of this process have born fruit. Put simply, no Han Chinese can "immigrate" to Xinjiang within the period of the moratorium. Economic, social and employment needs to be met by contract workers or by way of "working visa" arrangements similar to any nation state or by exception through negotiation with the Uygur leadership.

- Implement workable "Affirmative Action Policies" to raise the quality of the Uygur to a level to allow them to compete equally with the Han for employment and business opportunities in all sectors of the economy, including the Public service, and to ensure non discrimination. This will be a determining factor as to the to the length of the moratorium on Han immigration.

- Be willing to negotiate long term "Flood controls" on Han immigration to the region and actively encourage the return of Uygurs now in diaspora.

- Announce the setting up of Minorities Cultural Trusts eg Uygur Cultural Trust. These trusts are to be the beneficiaries of a set percentage of Xinjiang GDP. The purpose of the trusts to be worked out as to the minutiae but include at least

- A trust similar to the National Trust of England for the preservation of culturally unique buildings, infrastructure and areas of historical and cultural importance. This could include legislation similar to "Sacred Site" legislation in Australia which allows the Aborigines control over access and usage of these areas. For example areas of Kashgar or Turpan could be set aside for the Uygur whereby they have the right to manage business and residential usage.

- Sub Committee for the setting up and management of cultural education system to complement and provide for eventual integration into the Han System

- Sub Committees to govern all other aspects of Uygur and minorities culture eg performing and graphic arts.

- Reconstitute the government system so that it can be fully representative of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang in line with the original "Autonomous" regional model that was so noble in theory and intent but did not work in practice.

- Allow and provide infrastructure for the minorities to educate their children in a manner that will ensure an cultural grounding whilst preparing the child for full integration into the Han System by late primary or early secondary levels.

- Announce amnesty for political dissidents and provide a facility for the peaceable re integration of non- violent dissident groups and individuals without fear of retribution.

Repeal or renounce any legislation or policies limiting or denying freedom of religion, speech and association.

Implementation

- Realistic time tables to be negotiated

- Regular evaluations of progress

- Dispute mechanisms agreed to

- Requests for international support both moral and material (eg Foreign training scholarships etc)

- Community consultation, involvement and ownership of the process.

Monitoring

- The whole process, for reasons of transparency and dispute resolution, must be oversighted by an independent international body agreed to by both parties.

Conclusion

There can be a solution to the "Uygur Question" that is win/win for both the Uygur and the Chinese.

Additionally, a peaceful resolution can be an important component of the success or otherwise of China's quest for international integration and acceptance.

The process is by no means an easy one or one that can be implemented successful overnight.

The concessions recommended are not inconsiderable, and, will require enormous goodwill, foresight, political will and courage. As well intensive analysis and planning and a great deal of "marketing" will be required.

But the result will far outweigh the cost and it's achievement does not destroy or unduly compromise the basic wants and needs of each party or their long term goals. Yes, there are what appears to be impossible requests for concessions, but if closely analysed they are but small relative to the possible positive outcomes. Of course the party die hards and the Uygur nationalist organisations will need some heavy convincing.

The summary points of the hoped outcome are:

- The Chinese will be assured that Xinjiang will not become an area of political turbulence and even armed insurgency and, as such, can divert resources to the continued opening up of this strategically and economically vital area. China's national integrity is assured and even bolstered

- International kudos will flow to the PRC with contingent goodwill. One thorn will be removed from their side.

- Success will greatly lessen the hopes and aspirations of Central Asian terrorist or Islamic fundamentalist groups thus adding to the stability of the region.

- International pressure over Taiwan will decrease as the Chinese can demonstrate to the world their reasonableness.

- The Uygur will have sufficient control over their cultural and religious integrity and political future to maintain their cultural integrity far into the future.

- The Uygur can be raised, through affirmative action programmes, to more fully and equitably participate in the share of the economic benefits of the region thus lessening a major element of potential unrest and increasing economic results for Xinjiang.

- The Uygur, not being a small part of the population, have an important economic role to play. By effectively making them partners in Xinjiang's economic results through indexing funding to the GDP the area is assured of their participation.

- An economic boom will ultimately ensue, particularly with regards to tourism, which though growing is very much untapped at present.

- The Uygur if they are supportive as a result of these initiatives are the perfect conduits (as they have been for 2,000 years) for trade to and from the Central Asian Republics.

- Fear and violence will be eradicated among the citizens of Xinjiang.

The Uygur Question can be solved it just needs the political will.

(This a re-post of my article first published by MediaMonitors.net January 7, 2004 and given the events of 2009 in Urumqi of no less relevance despite it's age)

China's Mingong: Plight of China's Migrant Workers

They say you can spot a Mingong a mile away. Dirty, disheveled from the day's exertion, careblown and exhausted with a plaintive look.

The Mingong, or as is better known in the west as China's vast army of migrant workers is the faceless fuel of the most rapidly growing economy in the world.

Unheralded and unloved by his fellow citizens he works long hours for low pay, if, he gets any at all. He toils generally in the most dirtiest, the most dangerous and the most unwanted of occupations far away from his home town, families and friends. He lives, most times, in crowded, unsanitary conditions, living on meagre provisions and dreaming of his once a year spring soujourn to his home town , a  home coming described by some as one of the great movements of people in the world.

But the Mingong is the backbone of China's meteoric economic rise, so, why then does the world and his own country treat him with such disdain? As if his human rights, his dreams and his aspirations are meaningless. Why is he so visibly invisible?

Who then is this Mingong? This "Migrant" in his own land?

Estimates are that there are 150 million Migrant Workers in China. The number is expected to reach in excess of 200 million by 2012 and pass 300 million by 2025. They are citizens of China but have moved typically from rural areas such as Sichuan, Hunan, Henan, Anhui and Jiangxi Provinces where employment opportunities are drying up to the cities and regions of stupendous economic growth in the east.

Typically they move for economic reasons: greater emploment opportunities, higher pay, but some, though not many, for the excitement of seeing the bright lights of a more vibrant China.

Like most migrants in history they tend to gravitate to employment that is unwanted by the locals.  Usually dirty work, low paid and dangerous. Jobs in coal mining, construction and lower level service industries such as China's expanding food industry.

In these occupations they are looked down upon and derided by locals. They are "The peasants who want to be workers"

Why Is Their Plight a Human Rights Issue?

Yes the migrant worker chooses to leave his home, he voluntarily goes to seek greater rewards to send home to provide for his family.

That in itself is good, it is aspirational, it is what most people all over the world do, strive to better themselves. It is, however, how he is treated by employees and the Government and the results of this treatment that makes it a Human Rights Issue,

Worker/ Employee Relations

The Mingong is looked down upon and they are treated as nothing better, in a lot of instances, then an expendable resource. They are contracted at low rates of pay which generally includes sub-standard, crowded and unsanitary accommodation and food, which their employees deduct from their pay sometimes at outrageous cost. Having little protection by unions or government they can sometimes go unpaid for months, if they get paid at all.

They have none or little access to pension and health insurance. According to a study by Feng, Zuo and Ruan (2002) only 14 per cent had health insurance and 10 per cent had pension plans.

Due to their status and occupation work safety is a major issue. They lack basic and proper Occupational Health and Safety protection. In 2005, for example, there were 100,000 occupational related deaths in China and obviosly countless work related injuries and illnesses. The Mingong, the Chinese Migrant worker, would appear very noticebaly in these statistics if they have even been quantified.

Worker/ State Relations

Unfortunately wherever there is money there is motive for greed and avarice. This is universal. However, we in the west are protected from the excesses of this human nature flaw by strong Political governance and the support of the likes of Unions and pressure groups. This is not so in China. In China the system is the Minjongs greatest enemy.

This stems from a government policy known as the The Hukou System  (the government household registration system)

     "The Hukou system was established in the 1950s. It registers every person at a specific place (usually their place of birth), and requires all changes in residence to be registered with and
approved by both the government of the place of origin and that of the destination.

This policy became even more restrictive when the Chinese government introduced the food stamp system, and provided low-priced rationing of foods to each individual residing in his or her place of residence.

There were two main consequences resulting from implementing these policies. First, it became almost impossible for an individual to move from one place of residence to another. Second, the division between rural farmers and urban city dwellers became wider, with rural farmers lagging behind in economic and social resources."  (Zhao, YH, 2000)

In China, social welfare benefits are  tied a persons residence status within the Hukou system. Therefore, migrant workers are largely excluded from social security and medical benefits in the urban cities because they are not official residents of those cities.

They also have restrictions placed on their ability to get independent living arrangements, housing and rental subsidies and child health and education, thus, family re-unions are nigh impossible.

The Hukou system and it's inherint weaknesses and discrimiation is well known to the Chinese government but, for whatever reason, they choose to ignore it, always saying that reviews are ongoing. Why? This is hard to explain as the Mingong is vital and indispensable to China's economic growth.

There is no doubt in my mind that the  Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is fearful as to the ramifications of changes to the Hukou System. At the moment they have control to a great degree over population movements.

"Yes feel free to come to Shanghai to work on some project but when it is finished see you later, go back from whence you came. And, while your at it, leave your family at home. It is easier for us that way"

Conclusion

The plight of the Mingong is a real time Human Rights tragedy that is grossly ignored, particularly by so called Human Rights Activists in the west, not to mention obviously the Chinese government. The effects of their treatment cover all areas of human decency and individual and social stability and have unimaginable and unquantifiable repercussions.

Families are rent, children are denied proper parenting. The loneliness of the Mijong must be be palatable, insufferable. What effect on crime, mental and physical health?

These people are the front line soldiers of China's Economic "miracle" but what soldiers that have been to war for their country are so badly treated in-service and upon completion of their "tour of duty"

Let us get over the "One Child Policy", the constant over exposure of censorship issues. This is not an intellectual rights issue of who can say what and when, but real human suffering and misery.

When next you use your iPAD think about it.

Further reading suggested:

• Rural Migrant Workers in Urban China: Living a Marginalised Life  Daniel Fu Keung Wong, Chang Ying Li, He Xue Song. 2006
• Urban Life Cities, Model Cities in China © 2008 Jeffrey Hays
• Effectsof PovertyConcentrations: A Case of Migrant Workers Children in China Tsang, B. Fong, E. Tom, T.

The Deadliest Catch: China Coal Mining

AN OCCUPATION TO DIE FOR

The Chinese Coal Mining Industry is by far the most deadliest industry in the world for it's workforce.

In 2008 there were officially 3,215 deaths reported by Chinese government. This is  the "official" figure, human rights and industry analysts put this figure far higher, some suggesting upwards of  10,000 deaths, on average, annually.

Fatalities peaked in 2003 with 6,434 official deaths or, 4 per 1 million tons mined. This has reduced considerably to 2008 where the fatality rate was 1.18 per million. Whilst the  total and death rate has reduced considerably it has to be compared with the U.S. where since 2000 the death rate per million tons has been between .012 and .04 per million tons.

Why then is coal mining more dangerous than being a combat soldier?

The Chinese coal industry is the largest producer of coal in the world, far outstripping it's two largest competitors, the U.S. and Australia.

In 2009  the China's Coal industry produced officially 2.9 billion short tons of coal, three times that of the U.S., the world's next largest producer. It did so out of an estimated 15,000 mines employing, according to the International Energy Agency,  2,657,230 Chinese workers. Unlike Australia, for example, the most common mine operation is underground.

Even at this phenomenal production rate China can not meet domestic demand, considered to be around 3 billion tone per annum and thus forces it to dig deeply to fuel the second largest and the fastest growing economy in the world, one that  is abnormally dependent, for such a  large economy, on fossil energy fuel.

Industry Makeup

The industry consists of four types of mines namely:

• National Strategic Mines (NSM's) Nationally run companies numbering some 268 and accounting for 51% of production.
• Provincial National Mines (PNM's)  owned by provincial governments  numbering some 4,000 mines and producing 13% of production.
• Township Mines (TM's) numbering 12,000 approximately and owned by local governments and private organisations.
• Illegal operations statistics unknown.

Fatalities for NSM's in 2008 numbered 454 at a rate of .3 equivalent to that of the U.S. These mines are modern, well managed and resourced.

Fatalities for PNM's were 401 in the same year at a rate of 1.04 and at TM's the fatalities numbered 2360 at a rate of 2.15. These latter mines are at the very lower level being usually small operations, poorly equipped and lacking good management and governmental oversight.

 It is TM's  and illegal mining operations that commentators believe that accidents and fatality data has historically been considerably understated or not reported to Central authorities at all.

Since early last decade there has been much international scrutiny of the safety of Chinese Coal Mines. This has led to a crackdown by the Chinese central government on TM's and illegal mines and some 50,000 have been closed down in that period with greater scrutiny of those remaining. It is this crackdown that is mostly responsible for the fatality rate diminishing.

It is unlikely, in the medium term, that despite the Central Governments crackdowns, that the fatality rate will decrease at the rate it has over the last decade.

Corruption is rampant, especially at the lower levels of the industry, and demand exceeds supply. This provides for a deadly synergy that even the most well intentioned Government would be hard pressed to overcome.

The Chinese government has made considerable progress in mine workers safety in the last decade. It has, however, a very long way to go and one wonders that with the continued rapid industrial development, the style of mining operations required to extract the coal and the demand /supply equation that any further quantum leaps will be long tmes off.

Further Reading: China's Conundrum: Implication of Fatality Staistics of Chinese Coal Mines Thomas Rauch